Among the issues Pittsburgh's offense had in the Week 15 loss to Philadelphia was a lack of rushing success. Today I wanted to look at how rushing offenses have fared through Week 15, using success rates by down, game halves, and weekly views as well. Let's jump right in.

First, let's look at early down success rates league wide (with scrambles, kneels, and aborted/penalty plays excluded):

First Down Rush Success = A rush that gains 40-percent or more of the needed yardage. Second Down Rush Success = A rush that gains 50-percent or more of the needed yardage.

Not good, Bob. The Pittsburgh Steelers land on the undesirable bottom right of the visual, meaning they are a well below average team in rush success on early downs. This was definitely the case in their last Week 15 loss, but has also been a season long issue overall. Their 43.1 first down success rate ranks 28th in the NFL, which actually improved since a similar article I did on Steelers rushing success through Week 4 (35.7-percent, 31st).

The first four weeks of 2024, Pittsburgh was quite good on second down, with a 64.3-percent success rate that ranked eighth-best. That has fallen off a cliff though, to 53-percent, for a 25th rank league-wide. The lack of early down rushing success is putting Pittsburgh behind the chains, putting more pressure on late downs, a factor in third and long issues as well as extra pressure on the passing game.

My decision to remove scrambles from the equation is to mainly zoom in on running back success, and we see that it's simply not good enough. The players are one thing, but play calling, including an insane plan versus the Eagles with lack of adjustments, running into a brick wall the same way repeatedly.

We knew the back half of the schedule was going to be tough, but if you can't run the ball or adjust against the best teams in the league, it's bad news bears as we witnessed against the Eagles. Looking back at the visual, we see that Pittsburgh is the only playoff team clearly below the mean in both, so improving rushing success the last three weeks of 2024 and beyond is paramount if the Steelers want to make noise in the postseason.

All of Pittsburgh's remaining opponents land at the top of the league on either first or second down. Kansas City (61.4-percent) and Baltimore (57.2-percent) are top two in the NFL in first down rushing success, getting ahead of the chains early, while Cincinnati has made up ground on second down (63-percent) which ranks second league-wide.

This of course makes for more ideal third down situations overall, and all three offenses have a top four total third down conversion rate. Pittsburgh ranks 13th in comparison, not bad considering the above, but one of the biggest blunders of their Week 15 loss to a great Eagles team.

Another concerning element for Pittsburgh is how often they run the ball, second-most in the NFL in totality, and their lack of quality success is capping the potential of this offense against the elite teams in the NFL, discouragingly.

Here are late downs, where third and fourth downs that pick up a first down are considered a success:

Not much better, with a 23rd rank on third and fourth down rushing conversions. That number comes in at 52-percent. For context, the Ravens are an NFL best with a 73.3-percent late down rushing success rate, one of three teams above 70-percent, wow. This impressive rate doesn't even factor QB Lamar Jackson's rushing prowess, paired with RB Derrick Henry who's one of the NFL's best including late downs.

There are many key AFC North Data Points that are vital, and rush success in these Baltimore slugfests is high on the radar on both sides of the ball.

The Chiefs are also a great late down rushing team, with a 69.2-percent success rate that ranks fourth league-wide. Tough test the next two games for Pittsburgh's defense, who simply could not get off the field late in Week 15 which contributed to a historically bad time of possession disadvantage.

This was a key factor in a Steelers victory against the Ravens in their first matchup, on a similar right side of time of possession, and would go a long way in a hopeful season sweep and AFC North title if they can do it again.

Here's to hoping that's the case, along with stifling the run on early downs their last three games against teams that are solid at it, while Pittsburgh's offense simply needs to find more rushing success across the board.

Now for the full picture, total rushing success rates:

Unsurprising to see Pittsburgh towards the bottom of the league, ranking 27th in totality, with a 47.6-percent success rate. A 50-percent floor is a minimum expectation, which is true for 23 NFL teams through Week 15. Seeing the group that is not is discouraging, with Pittsburgh being one of the seldom playoff teams with a sub-5-0 rushing success rate on offense. Eek.

The Chiefs and Ravens top the league yet again, and emphasizes the importance of the article and Pittsburgh's challenges on tap. Pittsburgh's defense is still a top-five run defense on the season, so they've got to bring the boom in these quick turnaround games. Facing Baltimore which is arguably the most physical matchup in the league, then Kansas City who have a similar reputation four days later on Christmas could be a blunder.

These two games will hopefully reveal Pittsburgh's physical and mental toughness, as opposed to how things felt after their last loss where the run game could only muster a season low 3.3 yards per carry.

I was also curious to see how rush offenses have performed by half:

No matter the time of game, Pittsburgh has struggled as a rushing offense. A 47.2-percent first half success rate ranks 27th, and a slightly better 47.9-percent in the second half ranks 25th. Several things factor into this, like game circumstance. One of the biggest in my opinion is continued slow starts for Pittsburgh, that included five straight three-and-outs against Philly.

Coach Mike Tomlin continues to be unconcerned, confusingly. If the offense can have earlier success, like finally score their first opening drive touchdown in all of 2024, the hope is they can stick with the run even more, and get in the opposing defenses head including more rushing success.

That is something both elite offenses in the Chiefs and Ravens do extremely well. While both are above the mean regardless of half, they turn it up as the top two teams in the NFL in second halves. They impose their will with 60-plus success rates after halftime: Kansas City (60.9-percent), Baltimore (60.1-percent). Huge challenge and factor if Pittsburgh wants to look like the more dominant team against these outstanding offenses.

To wrap up, let's look at a weekly breakdown for added context:

We can see that the Pittsburgh Steelers offensive rushing success has been largely below the line all season. Only three clearly above the line games: Weeks 3, 4, and 11. The latter was the first Baltimore matchup, and hopefully Pittsburgh can be even stronger this time around. Quite some time in the other above average performances, but both games unfortunately resulted in losses.

The flipside is a whopping 11 games with below average rushing success rates, gross. While the last two games were closer to the 52.1-percent league average, two of their worst performances preceded in the division, including a lowly 38.5-percent success rate against the Bengals. Improved to 51.6-percent against Cleveland in the Week 14 revenge win, their best mark since facing Baltimore (56.7-percent).

The Ravens will surely be looking to put Pittsburgh below the line, as they've been much of the season. While this stat hasn't been the biggest factor in Pittsburgh's wins and losses, if they can get a positive trend to above average rushing success the rest of 2024, it could fuel a smoother offense that feels more like a new car, than the analogy OC Arthur Smith used for the Steelers rushing offense: an old pickup truck that needs jumper cables.

That can get you by at times, but Baltimore and the two-time defending champs in Kansas City's offensive rushing success look like Ferrari's in comparison. Both quarterbacks are clearly reaping benefits in the passing game and situationally, so hoping Pittsburgh's defense cutting the legs off their rushing attack could aid in less success otherwise.

For the quantity and identity of Pittsburgh offense as a run first team, their lack of quality has quietened that narrative, and flipped to QB Russell Wilson taking the pass game to the next level. Now is the time for Pittsburgh's ground game to make that desired identity going into the season undeniable. What better time than after a rough Week 15 game, surely pissed, against great teams in preparation for the postseason.

Let's see your heart coaches and players because jumper cables aren't going to cut it against the elite in the NFL.

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