Established stars have been front and center so far during the 2024-25 NBA season, with last season's top two MVP vote-getters --- Denver's Nikola Jokić and Oklahoma City's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander --- checking in as the front-runners again, and former two-time MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo leading the Milwaukee Bucks to the NBA Cup title last week.
There has still been plenty of room for one of our favorite annual NBA storylines, however: Young players on the rise. According to my estimated RAPTOR wins above replacement (WAR) metric, eight of the league's top 10 most valuable players are under 30 years old, and the league's overall average age of 26.4 ranks as the 15th youngest out of the 49 seasons since the ABA merger in 1976.
In other words, youth is being served this season -- and the following group of players is proof positive of it. Specifically, nine players under the age of 25 have dramatically improved their production from their previous seasons. From former lottery picks to undrafted players, we have assembled a list of breakout players who:
* Are under the age of 25
* Are on pace for at least 2 WAR per 82 games
* Had under 10 career WAR before 2024-25
* Never previously had a season of 2.5 WAR
* Improved their WAR pace (per 82 games) by at least 2.5 wins this season
For each player, I'll include what has made him so much better this season, and list his most comparable players at the same age according to my similarity index system.
Also known as the "Great Barrier Thief," Daniels' improvement this season has been nothing short of startling.
The No. 8 pick in the 2022 draft already made a huge leap in estimated RAPTOR last season (from -3.2 to +0.1) as a member of the Pelicans, but he has gotten far better again (rising to +1.4) with the Hawks at age 21 this season as a starter at the 2 spot. Not only is Daniels scoring a career-high 13.1 PPG, but, with a plus-2.5 estimated RAPTOR specifically on defense, he has established himself as one of the NBA's best wing defenders.
Key stat: Daniels is incredibly versatile and active at the defensive end. He leads the NBA in steals per game (3.0) and ranks third in deflections per 36 minutes.
Between his early struggles with efficiency and the leg injury that cost him most of his second NBA season in 2022-23, Cunningham has had a delayed path to statistical stardom despite being the No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft. But he showed signs of life with last season's scoring improvement to 22.7 points per game, and he has gotten better at both ends of the court in 2024-25. Cunningham still has work to do on defense, and his TS% remains below the league average -- inherently limited by his low free throw rate and even lower shot quality. However, he is averaging 24 points and nearly 10 assists per game, a testament to how far Cunningham has come as a lead ball handler at this level.
Key stat: Between scoring 24.0 PPG and contributing 25.3 additional PPG through his assists, Cunningham's points responsible tally (49.3 PPG) ranks sixth among qualified NBA players.
Figuring out how best to deploy a player of Sochan's talents had initially been a struggle for Spurs coaches. They tried using his versatile, 6-foot-8 skill set at point forward last season next to another unique talent, then-rookie Victor Wembanyama, but the results were far from successful. San Antonio was markedly worse with Sochan on the court, especially when he played with Wembanyama (-3.8 net rating). This season, though, Sochan (the No. 9 pick in the 2022 draft) has been far more efficient and effective when healthy, raising his estimated RAPTOR from minus-3.0 to plus-1.0.
Key stat: Sochan is cutting down on wasted possessions this season. His turnover rate is down from 14.3% to 12.8%, and his share of shots from the midrange has dipped from 38% to 32%.
Few players in the NBA have experienced more statistical ups and downs in the calendar year of 2024 than Agbaji. The 2022 No. 14 pick out of Kansas was a member of the Utah Jazz until a deadline trade sent him to Toronto in February. He finished as one of the lowest-performing players of the 2023-24 season, with an ugly 45.3 true shooting percentage (TS%) and a minus-5.2 estimated RAPTOR.
But with an offseason to adjust to his new team and coach Darko Rajakovic's system, Agbaji has been a radically more efficient version of himself, with an improved 63.1 TS%, 30th best in the league, while boosting his estimated RAPTOR at both ends of the court. In particular, Agbaji has one of the league's most improved 3-point percentages, going from 29.4% a season ago to a scorching 44.4% this season.
Key stat: Last season, 98% of NBA players had a better TS% than Agbaji. This season, he has turned the tables -- his mark is better than those of 86% of all active NBA players.
Jokić's supporting cast has caught flak this season for not helping Denver win more games, despite another all-time season by its top star. But don't blame Braun -- the third-year veteran has gone from a pleasant rookie surprise (No. 21 pick from the 2022 draft) in the 2023 NBA Finals to a starter and one of the Nuggets' most important players. On offense, he's their leading transition scorer and a 38% spot-up shooter from beyond the arc. And on defense, he has helped limit opponents to scoring 10.8 points less per 100 possessions while he's on the court versus off.
Braun isn't precisely a younger version of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope or Bruce Brown, but he brings a similar mix of efficient two-way play to what the Nuggets previously got on the wing during an earlier, championship-winning incarnation of the club.
Key stat: Braun has been in four of Denver's five most efficient five-man lineups this season, as well as 10 of the Nuggets' 14 lineups with a positive scoring differential.
Toronto, though near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings, is well-represented on this list of young breakouts, between Agbaji and Dick. In Dick's case, his place on this list stems from elevating his game from being one of the league's worst players (-5.2 estimated RAPTOR) to essentially league average. With a much greater offensive workload in his second NBA season (13th pick in the 2023 draft), Dick is attacking the rim more effectively, drawing more fouls and producing more points per 100 possessions (up from 105 to 111).
Key stat: Dick has really come into his own as a scorer this season, averaging 18.3 PPG -- a 10-point improvement from 2023-24.
With 2023-24 All-Rookie pick GG Jackson II out with an injury to begin the season, LaRavia has made the most of his opportunity in the same role as a combo forward for the Grizzlies. The 2022 No. 19 pick is producing 120 points per 100 possessions on offense with a respectable (for a big) 18.2% assist rate. On defense, he's right at home playing on the league's fourth-ranked team by defensive rating alongside Jaren Jackson Jr., Scotty Pippen Jr. and Brandon Clarke.
Key stat: Among Memphis regulars, only Clarke (+15.6) has been on the court for a higher net rating than LaRavia (+13.7).
New Orleans has been an absolute mess this season, losing more points of Elo rating since the preseason than any other team. Boston, however, has been a bright spot. The fourth-year wing leads the team in steals; he ranks second in minutes, third in rebounds and assists, and fourth in points; and he has the second-best on-versus-off plus/minus (+6.8) of any qualified Pelican.
Drafted 51st in the 2021 draft, Boston has always been intriguing because he has scoring potential -- his career usage rate before 2024-25 was nearly 24% -- but was horribly inefficient (98 points per 100 possessions). This season, his usage (19.7%) is back near league-average level, but at a more efficient pace, with him averaging 108 points per 100 possessions.
Key stat: Boston's minus-7.4 estimated RAPTOR last season ranked fourth worst among all players with at least 300 minutes. This season, he is slightly above league average at plus-0.2.
Unlike some on this list who were picked early, Champagnie went undrafted in 2022 and has had to fight his way out of the G League and into consistent NBA minutes. At first, he did that through his defense, which rated as a plus-0.5 in estimated RAPTOR last season thanks to block and steal rates both in excess of 1.5%. But this season, Champagnie has also become more efficient on offense -- he has a higher usage rate (now up to 16.8%), has a far better shooting percentage on 2-pointers and is hitting about 35% of his 3s. Champagnie still profiles as a 3-and-D wing who does most of his damage on catch-and-shoot 3s, but every team needs that archetype to win.
Key stat: Opponents shoot for a lower FG percentage at every range when guarded by Champagnie.
Similar metrics at the same age: Terrence Ross, 2013-14; Martell Webster, 2009-10; Cam Johnson, 2020-21