Paolo Banchero returned to Orlando's lineup on Thursday for the first time in over two months. With their star forward back in the fold, the Magic will look to beat the Philadelphia 76ers for a third time in four tries this season.
My 76ers vs. Magic predictions expect Banchero to have a monster offensive showing at home.
My analysis
Paolo Banchero has only appeared in six games this season, but he's topped 30 points four times while averaging a career-best 29.8 points. He's shooting 50% from the floor and knocking down 2.7 triples on 40% shooting from beyond the arc.
Banchero comfortably leads the Orlando Magic in scoring, and he'll be asked to shoulder a hefty offensive load on Sunday.
After Banchero, the team's leading scorers are Franz Wagner (24.4), Jalen Suggs (16.4) and Moritz Wagner (12.9). None of those players will be available against the Philadelphia 76ers, and Banchero should see a monster usage rate and plenty of shot attempts.
In 12 career games played without Franz Wagner, Banchero has averaged 24.2 points and scored at least 25 six times.
Orlando's budding superstar is 11th in the Association in field goal attempts at 19.7, and he has accounted for 23.1% of his team's shots taken when he's played.
Banchero has the fourth-highest usage rate in the NBA at 34.1, and he had a monstrous 46.8 usage rate in his first game back on Thursday where he dropped 34 points.
The Sixers rank 16th in defensive rating this season at 112.8, but over the last five, Philadelphia ranks 22nd at 115.9. In that span, Philadelphia has allowed opponents to shoot the third-highest 3-point percentage. This is a solid defensive matchup for Banchero, and he'll be in line for monster usage.
His points line is set at 23.5, and taking the Over comes with -120 odds. Simply going up one more point gives us +120 odds, which I'm more than happy to take.
The Magic have allowed the fewest points per game this season at 103.4, and they've allowed just 101.8 across their last five. The Sixers have allowed 113.6 in that same span and 110.8 points per game this season.
Orlando ranks 30th in pace, and Philadelphia ranks 28th, which means few shot opportunities in a defensive matchup.
Orlando held its own while dealing with key injuries to Banchero and Franz Wagner, but the team will have its top scorer and playmaker back for a winnable home matchup. The Sixers have been erratic all season thanks to a number of key injuries and inconsistent play.
The Magic are 12-2 straight up as the home favorite, and the Sixers are 2-8 as the road dog. I'll take Orlando to win outright and not worry about the spread.