Vanderbilt basketball came into SEC play with a shot to make the NCAA Tournament.
The Commodores (13-3, 1-2 SEC) were listed in Joe Lunardi's projected brackets. But the SEC is the toughest conference in college basketball this year, and that's a double-edged sword for Vanderbilt after a 75-66 loss at Missouri (13-3, 2-1).
On one hand, the Commodores have a lot of Quadrant 1 opportunities. As of Saturday morning, Vanderbilt has 11 Quad 1 games left on its schedule and only one Quad 3 game: Wednesday's against South Carolina. There's still plenty of runway to make the tournament if the Commodores rack up wins.
But, as the last two games have made clear, racking up wins in the SEC is a lot harder than doing it against the country's third-easiest non-conference schedule - a schedule that won't do Vanderbilt any favors on Selection Sunday. Missouri was arguably the most winnable road game remaining on the schedule, and the Commodores now have one fewer opportunity to get the wins they need.
After facing the Gamecocks at home Wednesday, Vanderbilt will face four ranked teams in a row: No. 1 Tennessee (home), No. 5 Alabama (road), No. 7 Kentucky (home) and No. 16 Oklahoma (road).
With South Carolina being the lone Quadrant 3 game on the schedule, it will be imperative for the Commodores to win. The Gamecocks (10-6, 0-3) rate out as the worst SEC team in the NET, but they played Auburn within one possession at home Saturday.
MISSISSIPPI STATE LOSS Why Mark Byington wants Vanderbilt to learn to beat good teams after loss to Mississippi State
Vanderbilt has faced just two teams ranked in the top 50 of the NET and lost both games, to Mississippi State and Missouri. Against teams ranked in the top 100, the Commodores are 4-3 with wins against Nevada and TCU at neutral sites and LSU on the road but a neutral-site loss to Drake.
In SEC play, only South Carolina is not in the top 50 of the NET. That means Vanderbilt will need to up its performance level against good teams.
One difference in the past two games is that the Commodores' elite turnover margin hasn't held up. Against Mississippi State, Vanderbilt had 13 turnovers and the Bulldogs had 11. Against Missouri, both teams had 14 turnovers. That trend also held in the win over Nevada (both teams had 13 turnovers), though the Commodores did significantly win the turnover battle against Drake, TCU and LSU.
Winning the turnover battle is important because Vanderbilt has struggled defensively at times when opponents can get into their sets. Missouri shot 12-for-18 on dunks and layups and went 10-for-24 on 3-pointers. Each of the Commodores' three SEC opponents has put up close to a 50% field-goal percentage: LSU at 50%, Mississippi State at 47% and Missouri at 49%.
Another common theme from the Missouri and Mississippi State games was a poor start. The Commodores trailed by 17 against the Tigers and 22 against the Bulldogs. In both games, Vanderbilt made a comeback later in the second half, cutting the deficit to five against Mississippi State and one against Missouri, but it was too late.
Vanderbilt is favored in five remaining games, according to Bart Torvik: home games against South Carolina, Texas, Ole Miss, Missouri and Arkansas.
Beyond those five, though, the Commodores are only given greater than a 30% chance at two other games: a home game against Kentucky and a road game at Oklahoma.
Given Vanderbilt's non-conference strength of schedule, simply winning those games against teams in the bottom half of the conference may not be enough. A win against Kentucky, which will be on favorable home court, could help, but the Commodores could especially use a marquee road win. Alabama, Florida, Tennessee and Kentucky are all on the road schedule, but a win against Texas A&M or Georgia could also give a boost.
Without multiple wins in the SEC Tournament or a major upset or two, Vanderbilt may well need eight SEC wins to get a bid on Selection Sunday.
Aria Gerson covers Vanderbilt athletics for The Tennessean. Contact her at [email protected] or on X, formerly Twitter, @aria_gerson.