It's been two years now, and I'm left wondering what exactly the long-term plan is for the Utah Jazz front office. What scares me, I'm not sure that Ryan Smith, Danny Ainge, and Justin Zanik can tell me what the actual plan is.
Before last offseason began, we heard Danny Ainge say that the Jazz were going "big game hunting."
What that amounted to was a lot of trade rumors for Lauri Markkanen after the Jazz apparently were all-in trying to get Mikal Bridges and struck out.
Regarding Mikal Bridges, the question is, what were they offering? Were they looking at giving all the Cavs and Wolves picks for a player who broke his shooting form before the season?
In fairness to Bridges, he has improved his three-point shooting to 35% for the season. But was the Jazz's big game-hunting plan just to go out and get Mikal Bridges? THAT'S the big plan?
So what happens if that actually happened? Mikal Bridges started the season sub 30% from three and his defensive upside has been very underwhelming this year. The Jazz had traded Mike Conley two seasons earlier and have been developing Keyonte George as a point guard this season. Would they have traded Keyonte George for another guard? Was there another move they were thinking of making? The only clear available player has been Brandon Ingram. Was the plan to have a trio of Lauri Markkanen, Mikal Bridges, and maybe Brandon Ingram? That would have been an interesting team, but it would have been nowhere near serious contention.
On top of that, we were told that the Jazz plan was to create a long window and contend for a championship. But then the Jazz go and try to give up everything to pair a high-level role-player with another high-level role-player? That's what they wanted?
It's this type of organizational thinking that has me scratching my head. Who is making these decisions?
Speaking of role-players, as I mentioned, the Jazz were included in endless rumors all offseason regarding Lauri Markkanen. All summer, Jazz fans argued whether the Jazz should keep Markkanen or not. But even the most casual of fans understood that the argument wasn't whether the Jazz should BUILD AROUND Lauri Markkanen. The argument was whether the Jazz could lose enough games to get a shot at an elite talent like Cooper Flagg with or without Markkanen on the team.
In all honestly, that hasn't been completely answered yet. Those like myself have been proven right that trading Markkanen was enough to get Utah to the top of the lottery board, the ONLY thing that matters this season. But the jury is still out on whether that can happen with Markkanen on the team.
But games like the last two, where the Jazz have had bad wins that have dropped them in the lottery, could have been losses had the Jazz not been playing Collin Sexton and John Collins big minutes. Someone, please enlighten me on what the Jazz gain by random wins over the Dallas Mavericks, Detroit Pistons, and Brooklyn Nets because of John Collins and Collin Sexton. I'm serious. I don't understand. What do they gain? Please let me know in the comments.
On top of that, you know who didn't get minutes? Cody Williams. Williams is gaining confidence in the G-League, which is fine if the Jazz weren't playing high-level role players in his place. But no, they are playing players like Jordan Clarkson, Collin Sexton, and John Collins instead. I thought this season was about developing young players. That's what we were told, at least. I guess not. I understand that Taylor Hendricks was getting minutes and had a catastrophic injury, but why are those veterans still on the team anyway? There is no reason that Williams shouldn't be on the floor with this Jazz team. There's no downside. Williams either develops and figures out how to get his head above water, or he doesn't. Either way, the Jazz are better off. If he figures it out and plays great, it's a win for the Jazz. If he doesn't play well and costs the Jazz games, it gets the Jazz better positioning in the lottery. This league is unfair, unkind, and hard. This is what it takes; if a player can't get confidence while playing with varsity, he might not have it.
So, just like the last two seasons that have proven to be complete wastes of time, the Jazz are at it again. Cody Williams is in the G-League, while the Jazz play veterans who will not be on the team after next season get time. The Jazz will continue winning games that will keep them from getting a high pick. Which, by the way, would be a potential star that would never choose to be here on their own. And with how strict the current CBA is, that player would be locked in on the team for a long time.
On top of that, it's a good reminder of a principle we've talked about on this blog a million times. Something everyone on this blog knows, something most Jazz fans know, maybe EVERYONE KNOWS: the only way to true championship contention is if you have an MVP on your team. Utah has not been in the finals since they had an MVP on the team in Karl Malone. They haven't sniffed them since. I think even the Facebook groups understand that. I'm not sure the Jazz front office and ownership knows that, though.
I have to be clear here about what the point of this is. I'm writing this because I'm really nervous. I'm not sure our front office understands the importance of this potential player from the draft. It feels like each decision they make is out of fear. Why else would they keep these veterans? Do they really believe in the potential of the players at the top of this draft? The only explanation is that keeping players like Collin Sexton, Lauri Markkanen, and John Collins is some sort of security blanket for a potential drop in the lottery. And that is where the misunderstanding is happening. When going for a rebuild through the draft, you're not losing games to get the highest possible odds at the #1 pick; you're looking to raise your draft floor. What do I mean? Let's say that the Jazz end this season at the #5 spot where they currently stand. The floor for that position is four spots lower in case four teams behind them jump into the lottery. Not very likely, but still possible. And that's how you have to think about a high lottery pick in the draft. Currently, the Washington Wizards have a floor of five. They can have the worst-case scenario happen and still get the 5-spot. In a draft like this, getting the highest pick possible is invaluable, and the Wizards understand the assignment. On the other hand, the Jazz are keeping veterans on their team that are lowering their floor significantly. It's as if they don't believe they can win, and they want to fall back on something comfortable.
So what this leaves us with is a front office that is playing with fire and is increasing the chance they get burned. And there's a LOT at stake here already. Will Hardy is in year three of his contract. Who is very much part of the reason Utah is winning these games, he's too frustratingly good! The Jazz brass have already wasted the first two seasons by not actually going for it in either of the last two drafts and then followed those seasons with offseasons of very little. They didn't give 100% in the pursuit of Victor Wembanyama and could only get to the 9 pick. The following season, they didn't make a decision until the trade deadline and saw themselves being leapt twice, leaving them with the #10 pick, who they aren't even playing. Does Will Hardy want to stay with a front office that can't go all-in on any sort of offseason strategy?
And the other thing is that the Jazz are already in this potion with a losing record. Are they really going to go this far with the season and lose all these games, only to not go all the way? So little of it makes sense. It really feels like the Jazz front office and owner want to be the Chicago Bulls or Sacramento Kings so badly.
All that said, the Jazz could still win the lottery, and none of these poor decisions will come with any consequence. I sure hope so! But the decision-making has me scared to death and my confidence is shaken in what this brass is doing. What happens next year with AJ Dybantsa and Cam Boozer? Will they prioritize short-term veterans again next year rather than going for it with that draft? We'll find out. But something tells me that there isn't a clear plan now, and there isn't a clear one there either.
Now, the good news is that all of this can be fixed if the Jazz make some trades soon. Like yesterday, soon. And it doesn't take a lot. Trade Collin Sexton and John Collins, and that likely solves everything. Play Cody Williams big minutes and let him make his mistakes. But they can't be waiting to maximize the protections on a first for Sexton only to ruin their chance at maximizing their current pick. Do the right thing, Jazz. Make the changes now so we aren't all regretting things for a third season in a row.