SOUTH BEND -- One of the best parts of the new 12-team College Football Playoff was the addition of home games for the first round. Four on-site contests featuring some of the best teams in the country at some of the most iconic venues? It had most college football fans excited.
That excitement has been rewarded with the four home games happening this weekend, starting with the battle between visiting No. 10-seed Indiana (11-1) and host No. 7 Notre Dame (11-1) Friday night in South Bend (8 p.m., ESPN/ABC). While the Fighting Irish were expected to contend for a Playoff spot this season, the Hoosiers were not, making this a fascinating in-state battle.
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What could ultimately decide the first of four games this weekend? Here are three keys to the Indiana vs. Notre Dame battle, plus score predictions from across the USA Today Network Indiana newspapers.
In a game where the wind chill temperature will be in the teens, who runs the ball most effectively could decide the game.
Notre Dame has made its living on offense with its ground attack. Sophomore running back Jeremiyah Love has had a breakout season, accumulating 945 rushing yards and 15 touchdowns, scoring in every game this year. Junior Jadarian Price has complemented him with 615 yards and seven touchdowns, while graduate senior quarterback Riley Leonard's mobility has led to 721 rush yards and 14 scores for him on the ground.
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They'll be facing an Indiana defense that allows the fewest rushing yards per game at 70.83. Junior Mikail Kamara has controlled the line of scrimmage for the Hoosiers all season, totaling 15 tackles for loss and 10 sacks. Junior linebacker Aiden Fisher (108 tackles) and senior Jallin Walker (72 tackles) have also been a force in stopping the run, among others. All three followed IU coach Curt Cignetti from his previous stop at James Madison University.
Conversely, Notre Dame's defensive front received a huge boost this week with the return of graduate senior defensive tackle Howard Cross III. The Irish are middle of the pack as far as stopping the run, with its 138.1 yards per game allowed average ranking 51st overall.
That's also the same spot Indiana's rushing offense ranks, with its yards-per-game average being 173.58. Graduate seniors Justic Ellison has 811 yards and 10 touchdowns, while Ty Son Lawson has 634 yards and 12 scores for the Hoosiers.
One of the major reasons why Indiana made it to the inaugural 12-team playoff is the play of graduate senior quarterback Kurtis Rourke. He finished with 2,827 passing yards, 27 touchdowns and only four interceptions this year, earning himself a 9th place finish in last week's Heisman Trophy voting.
That being said, the aforementioned coldness will be taking over Notre Dame Stadium, which tends to make throwing the ball harder. The Hoosiers did play in a cold/snowy game in the final week of the regular season, but it was against a much different opponent in Purdue. Rourke threw six touchdowns in the 66-0 win, giving the Boilermakers a 1-11 record and a firing of head coach Ryan Walters.
It'll likely be colder in South Bend Friday than it was in Bloomington three weeks ago. Snow could also come into play as well. If the Hoosiers can manage its passing game through the elements, they'll have a chance to pull the upset on the road.
This is mostly foreign territory for both teams. The Irish went to the Playoff in 2020, but only a handful of players on that team are still around. Some of Indiana's roster have navigated an FCS playoff run that's similar to this new CFP format, but this is much different than that.
There'll be an extra buzz inside Notre Dame Stadium for this one. Whoever controls its emotions best could find themselves advancing to Jan. 1's Sugar Bowl to face Georgia in the quarterfinals.
Given the unofficial "state championship" moniker this game has taken on, we reached out to all our sports journalists from Indiana newspapers within the USA Today Network, asking for their predictions. Here are the ones that responded.
SOUTH BEND TRIBUNE
Mike Berardino, ND football reporter: Notre Dame 21, Indiana 13. Could be a snowball fight out there, but the Irish have enough in their arsenal to advance.
Tom Noie, sports columnist: Notre Dame 21, Indiana 13. On a cold, historic night with the highest of stakes at stake, both teams choose to go the low-risk/reward route before the Irish make a few more plays -- on both sides of the ball -- when it matters.
Austin Hough, sportswriter: Notre Dame 17, Indiana 10. Given the elements and the stage, this feels like a low-scoring game. Jeremiyah Love rips off a long touchdown run in the fourth quarter to win it for the Irish.
Scott Davidson, sports reporter: Notre Dame 28, Indiana 17. The Irish use their physical running game to handle the Hoosiers.
THE HEARLD-TIMES (Bloomington)
Michael Niziolek, Indiana beat reporter: Indiana 34, Notre Dame 24. The key matchup might be whether or not the Irish passing defense can hold up against Kurtis Rourke and company. If Indiana avoids the kind of pass protection breakdowns it had against Michigan (mostly in the second half) and Ohio State, it will have a real shot. The lessons it learned in those games should help it pull off a historic upset in South Bend.
INDIANAPOLIS STAR
Nat Newell, sports director: Notre Dame 20, Indiana 15. IU will struggle to move the ball on the Irish defense as it did against Ohio State, but the game will come down to the final drive. The SEC will surely use this result as evidence an Alabama team that scored 3 points against Oklahoma was more deserving of a CFP bid.
Zach Osterman, IU insider: Notre Dame 27, Indiana 20. My feel for this game is as low confidence as any I think I've seen from Indiana this season. There are so many strength-on-strength matchups, and yet also mitigating elements of those. I lean towards Notre Dame's ability to control the run game and count on homefield advantage. But I think it'll be close.
Gregg Doyel, columnist: No way in hell is IU football beating Notre Dame in the CFP playoff ... after I was too scared to pick that. Hoosiers win.
Dustin Dopirak, Indiana Pacers beat reporter: Notre Dame 31, Indiana 21. Indiana has a lot more capacity to make this a game than a lot of folks give it credit for. It has the better quarterback, weapons at the other skill positions and legit defensive talent. But the combination of Notre Dame's rushing attack and the havoc-inducing presence of Xavier Watts will prove too much.
Kyle Neddenriep, high school sports reporter: Notre Dame 27, Indiana 20. Rudy over transfer portal-era Rudy.
Brian Haenchen, high school sports reporter: Indiana 23, Notre Dame 21. My head says Notre Dame, but IU's a fun story, so I'm rolling with the Hoosiers, who make amends for the Ohio State debacle. Give me a walk-off touchdown, too, because the first year of the 12-team playoff deserves all the chaos.
Charlotte Varnes, high school sports reporter: Notre Dame 28, Indiana 24. IU's top rush defense vs. Notre Dame's strong ground game will be a fun watch. It will be close, but Riley Leonard and Notre Dame's offense will prove too much for the Hoosiers.
Dana Benbow, sports reporter: Notre Dame 31, Indiana 24. I hate to go against Curt Cignetti's trusty recliner, but Notre Dame is going to make sure IU knows it is the premier football school in this state.
Nathan Baird, Purdue insider: Notre Dame 34, Indiana 20. I'm getting 2014 Ohio State vibes from the Irish. Suffer a weird early season loss at home, then start rolling right through the national championship game.
Scott Horner, sports reporter and producer: Notre Dame 24, Indiana 20. Jack Kiser stops Ty Son Lawton on a fourth-down run in the red zone in the final minute to preserve the Irish win. Hoosiers fans will bemoan a controversial penalty that wipes out a touchdown.
JOURNAL & COURIER (Lafayette)
Sam King, sports reporter: Notre Dame 35, Indiana 24. The Hoosiers have the offensive skill players to hang with Notre Dame and Kurtis Rourke is in a perfect system to maximize his talents. But Notre Dame has more power in the trenches and that's a difference maker that becomes more valuable in games like this. How much does home field advantage play a factor? I am sure Indiana is saying if Northern Illinois can win there, it can, too. Which is true, but I don't see it happening.
Cade Hampton, sports reporter: Notre Dame 24, Indiana 13. Give me the Fighting Irish in a defensive slugfest in what could be some ugly weather conditions. IU struggled against the stout defensive lines of Michigan and Ohio State, and Notre Dame has one of the best front-7s in the country, if not the best.
Final tally: 15 Notre Dame picks, three Indiana picks